Henricksen: Mr. Basketball frontrunners

There have been years when Mr. Basketball in Illinois was a foregone conclusion: i.e. Stevenson’s Jalen Brunson in 2015.

Last year Charlie Moore of Morgan Park was the frontrunner in the preseason and lived up to the expectations, despite season-long runs from Fenwick’s Mike Smith, St. Joseph’s Nick Rakocevic, Simeon’s Zach Norvell and Belleville Althoff junior Jordan Goodwin.

This year? We could have a race.

A look at how competitive the Mr. Basketball race could be and the odds heading for each frontrunner heading into the season.

• Jordan Goodwin, Belleville Althoff

Goodwin’s odds: 3-1

Early credentials and hype: Due to his individual and team accomplishments, the stat-sheet stuffing Goodwin has plenty of name recognition and is the favorite. There is no player in the state who has been more productive than Goodwin. He’s led two teams to Peoria, winning a Class 3A state title last year, and will soar past 2,000 career points scored. And this year he will be asked to carry an even bigger load.

Against the odds: While Althoff will once again be strong this season, the Crusaders simply aren’t as loaded as they’ve been the past two seasons. Althoff also makes the jump to Class 4A this year. Combine all that and it’s no guarantee Goodwin will be playing in Peoria and grabbing as many headlines this season.

And while it should never matter when it comes to individual awards, shunning local schools Illinois and Northwestern certainly won’t help in the Mr. Basketball race among statewide voters.

• Jeremiah Tilmon, East St. Louis

Tilmon’s odds: 11-2

Early credentials and hype: The 6-10 Tilmon is the top-ranked prospect in the state and the only senior in Illinois with a shot of being named a McDonald’s All-American. Tilmon has the potential to average a double-double and be a rim-protecting, defensive stalwart. Plus, he has the heart of many from around the state as an Illinois recruit.

Against the odds: The overall numbers from big men can sometimes be tricky –– double and triple teams in the post, selfish guards, etc. –– and the majority of the state won’t see Tilmon play after his visit to Chicago for an appearance in the Chicago Elite Classic. In addition, defensive contributions don’t always receive proper consideration.

• Ayo Dosunmu, Morgan Park

Dosunmu’s odds: 8-1

Early credentials and hype: After an eye-opening offseason in which he climbed national rankings, the 6-3 point guard is ready for a breakout high school season. Already the No. 1 prospect in the state in the Class of 2018, Dosunmu will be showcased extensively by coach Nick Irvin. Dosunmu will have the ball in his hands and will undoubtedly put up monster numbers and begin his Mr. Basketball campaign from the get-go.

Against the odds: A bit of a long shot due to his year in school. There have been very few juniors who have won Mr. Basketball in Illinois, so any junior is up and against the odds.

• Alonzo Verge, Thornton

Verge’s odds: 10-1

Early credentials and hype: All anyone has to do to get excited about Player of the Year possibilities is think back to what Verge did as a sophomore at Willowbrook. He was electric. With Thornton’s up-and-down, frenetic pace it plays, who knows what type of numbers and impact Verge could have on this season. There will surely be a signature performance from Verge –– or three.

Against the odds: It’s been out of sight, out of mind for Verge when it comes to competitive high school basketball. How quickly will be get acclimated?

• Nojel Eastern, Evanston

Eastern’s odds: 12-1

Early credentials and hype: Eastern has name value since he entered high school as a freshman and brings tremendous all-around value. He’s produced and won his share of games. Last year he averaged 14.9 points, 6.5 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 blocks and 2 steals a game.

Against the odds: Although it’s not always the case, unselfishness is typically not a characteristic of Mr. Basketball candidates. While his offensive numbers likely will spike a bit this season, one of Eastern’s real strengths is his passing. Evanston’s success won’t hinge on Eastern’s point totals as the offense figures to be fairly balanced.

• Da’Monte Williams, Peoria Manual

Williams’ odds: 12-1

Early credentials and hype: A big name in prep hoops entering his senior year after leading Manual to a third-place finish in Class 3A last year. Along the way the 6-3 guard averaged 15.8 points, 5.8 rebounds and 2.5 assists a game as a junior. The potential is there for a monster senior campaign.

Against the odds: Up to this point Williams has been reluctant to show that he’s capable of being a consistent go-to, take-over-a-game player. Will the energy and high-level production be there on an every game basis?

• Javon Pickett, Belleville East

Pickett’s odds: 15-1

Early credentials and hype: The numbers will be there, just as they were a year ago. Pickett brings the biggest returning statistics into his senior year after putting up 23.4 points a game as a junior.

Against the odds: While Pickett gained some state buzz with his commitment to Illinois, will Belleville East be prevalent enough in the high school basketball landscape to warrant Mr. Basketball consideration? And will bigger-named stars in the Metro East area of St. Louis –– Jeremiah Tilmon and Jordan Goodwin –– drown out Pickett’s candidacy?

• Justin Smith, Stevenson

Smith’s odds: 15-1

Early credentials and hype: After playing a supporting role to Jalen Brunson and Connor Cashaw as a sophomore for a state championship team, Smith became the focal point last year as a junior and put up 17 points, 8.2 rebounds and 2.2 assists a game. The Indiana commit has remained in some top 100 lists nationally, and he’s the City/Suburban Hoops Report’s No. 3 prospect in the senior class.

Against the odds: While Smith has come a long way as far as his assertiveness and consistency, another step needs to be taken and a dominating senior year needs to follow. If that does occur, then Stevenson’s team success should come right along with it and add more to the Smith resumé.

• Elijah Joiner, Curie

Joiner’s odds: 25-1

Early credentials and hype: With top shot-taker and ball-dominator Devin Gage moving on, it’s easy to forecast a breakthrough year for Joiner in terms of his numbers and production. If those numbers creep towards 20 points a game for a top five team, you’re likely to at least be a contender in any awards race.

Against the odds: When Curie is at its best, the Condors are balanced. Plus, Joiner may be asked to play the role of distributor as Curie sorts out its point guard situation.

Follow Joe Henricksen and the Hoops Report on Twitter @joehoopsreport